Well, unlike last year, the above picture will not be an accurate representation of how the weather will be in St. Pete today. If you click the "Is It May Yet?" link over there, you'll see resident weatherman Will's assessment of how things are going to look.
While I can't give you an accurate judgment on the chances of rain, I can give you an accurate judgment of the chances of a first-turn incident as the field comes off the runway in the wet: 110%. The runway at Albert Whitted Airport is approximately 30 miles wide (give or take a few) and there's plenty of runoff on the inside of the turn. Therefore, nearly every year, cars go about 4-wide into the funnel that is turn 1, then the carbon fiber starts flying.
The rest of the course is fairly typical street circuit fare: narrow, 90-degree turns with very little room for error. There is one nice blast along the harbor that can create some passing opportunities, but the turn at the end of the blast is fairly quick and preceded by a couple of kinks, making the setup for the following car difficult. Some drivers will try to pass in other spots, but as Rafa Matos and Danica Patrick found out last year, the results can be disastrous.
As far as the outcome of the race is concerned, the rain will make things quite interesting. If the weather dies off, the track will start drying and the dry-versus-wet tire strategies will start affecting things. One of the smaller teams with nothing to lose could pull a crazy strategy out of their pocket and benefit big time.
Also, any incident at the first corner, depending on where it occurs within the field, could put a driver who qualified low back towards the front.
Winner: Will Power The kid is good, as we saw down the stretch at Sao Paulo. He's on the pole at St. Pete, putting him clear of most first-lap incidents, and out ahead of the spray from the rain tires. Driving a Penske car doesn't hurt him either.
Dark Horse: Dario Franchitti Odd to see Mr. Dario as a dark horse, but I attribute it to his difficult qualifying that placed him 13th on the starting grid. As his wife will tell you, though, he's one of the best and one of the classiest on the grid, and he is well capable of keeping the car pointed in the right direction in the rain. If he avoids other people's problems, the light-blue-for-this-week Target car could be at the front at the finish.
Ninja Dark Horse: Graham Rahal He won in his first ever IndyCar start at St. Pete with a team that had just joined the League. Now he's paired with everyone's favorite underdog team in Sarah Fisher Racing and coming back to one of his better tracks for his first race of 2010. Some pit strategy calls and a bit of luck could get Graham up near the head of the field.
Danica Watch! Street course, rain, so on and so forth. She's starting really low in the field too, so the possibility of being hit by another car is high. Danica will be a non-factor today.
I'm watching a little basketball right now, but the TV flips over at 3:30 for IndyCar action. I'll be back on here to do some live coverage then.
*UPDATE*
St. Pete is being freight trained by thunderstorms, which means there's lighting in the air and they can't have spectators or participants out in that kind of weather. The race will be at 10 in the morning Monday on ESPN2. No live blog from me, since I'll be at work, but I'll have the DVR fired up and ready to go. Cheers.
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